Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4952 IAH 09:49 → SHV 11:02 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 5765 IAH 14:28 → SHV 15:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4952 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAH 09:49	SHV 11:02	13%	4%	1.0%	90%
OO 5368 SkyWest	IAH 20:08	SHV 21:16	14%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 5366 SkyWest	IAH 18:38	SHV 19:58	15%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 5765 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 14:28	SHV 15:41	15%	7%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON