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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:33 → SJC 13:17UA 1256 7h 57m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 7h 00m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 33m Chicago ORD 09:32 → SJC 12:08UA 307 9h 04m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:16 → SJC 11:04AA 2046 8h 02m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069 54m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 7h 50m 89% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 47m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:10UA 2745 8h 10m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933 9h 03m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → IAH 07:00 → DFW 08:28AA 3026 3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:02 → SJC 13:49AA 2834 8h 49m 96% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 07:00 → DFW 08:28AA 3026 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:16 → SJC 11:04AA 2046 6h 04m 69% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON