tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching San Juan on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 701 United Flight history → IAH 15:03 SJU 20:38 18% 4% 0.6% 91%
UA 1192 United Flight history → IAH 10:03 SJU 15:42 23% 5% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Juan is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 56m Denver DEN 09:43 → SJU 17:38UA 1339 11h 23m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 39m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:06 → ATL 15:18DL 1682 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 9h 23m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069 56m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 6h 52m 91% 75%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:48 → SJU 14:55AA 702 8h 53m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:41 → CLT 09:24AA 2011 1h 39m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 09m 95% 70%
FrontierDetails → IAH 06:18 → ATL 09:44F9 1404 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → SJU 16:22F9 2082 9h 04m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:12 → MIA 09:57AA 2144 1h 21m Miami MIA 11:18 → SJU 14:07AA 1613 6h 55m 88% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 07:24 → FLL 10:47B6 2380 1h 13m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:00 → SJU 14:38B6 1453 6h 14m 73% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON