Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1583 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1583 IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 2157 IAH 20:25 → SLC 22:43 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1583 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:35	SLC 09:48	12%	4%	0.4%	86%
DL 1532 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:14	SLC 16:32	19%	6%	0.4%	86%
OO 5301 SkyWest	IAH 12:28	SLC 14:57	22%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 2157 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	SLC 22:43	25%	9%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON