tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 15:30, is the safest bet: 53% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1148 United Flight history → IAH 20:35 SMF 22:43 24% 6% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:49 → LAX 07:16UA 417 2h 07m Los Angeles LAX 09:23 → SMF 11:08UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest 7h 19m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 13m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:34UA 2149 6h 19m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743 3h 06m Los Angeles LAX 21:14 → SMF 22:48UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 8h 17m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 2h 24m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest 7h 33m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 39m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 41m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:46 → SMF 13:25UA 2673 8h 05m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 05m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 47m 96% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 18:48 → LAX 20:25UA 2658 49m Los Angeles LAX 21:14 → SMF 22:48UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 6h 00m 72% 63%
FrontierDetails → IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:14F9 3229 47m Denver DEN 09:01 → SMF 10:35F9 3665 6h 05m 75% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON