Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YV 6277 at 12:16, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YV 6277 Mesa	IAH 12:16	SRQ 15:47	19%	6%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104	5h 08m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:06 → ATL 15:18DL 1682	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109	6h 51m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:01 → SRQ 16:37DL 3115	5h 50m	97%	79%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	9h 08m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997	6h 49m	97%	75%
American Details →	IAH 16:49 → MIA 20:35AA 678	2h 19m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	6h 10m	92%	71%
American Details →	IAH 05:41 → CLT 09:24AA 2011	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 10:25 → SRQ 12:24AA 1452	5h 43m	91%	69%
United Details →	IAH 12:00 → EWR 16:46UA 2371	3h 23m Newark	EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324	10h 15m	97%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON