Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1908 United Flight history →	IAH 09:52	STT 15:43	15%	5%	0.7%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte Amalie is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAH 05:41 → CLT 09:24AA 2011	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 12:32 → STT 16:24AA 2004	9h 43m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:49DL 1899	7h 09m	97%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON