Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YV 4048 at 11:57, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YV 4048 Mesa	IAH 11:57	TVC 16:20	16%	5%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 10:29 → TVC 13:04DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	94%	84%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	3h 00m Denver	DEN 09:47 → TVC 14:24UA 2420	8h 09m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	IAH 15:20 → DTW 19:03DL 1307	2h 27m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → TVC 22:41DL 2424	6h 21m	98%	76%
American Details →	IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:32AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	7h 19m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON