Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4297 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:35	XNA 11:12	14%	6%	0.0%	86%
UA 6308 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 20:12	XNA 21:55	21%	7%	1.5%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	3h 03m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	7h 32m	99%	84%
American Details →	IAH 09:05 → DFW 10:27AA 3598 · flown by Envoy	3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:16 → XNA 15:37AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	6h 32m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:06 → ATL 15:18DL 1682	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 17:19 → XNA 18:14DL 2771	6h 08m	96%	80%
American Details →	IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 11:54 → XNA 13:42AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	7h 29m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → XNA 16:41DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	6h 54m	99%	75%
American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:00 → XNA 11:21AA 2025	6h 19m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:32DL 1710	5h 54m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	IAH 17:37 → ATL 20:47DL 1223	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:57 → XNA 23:56DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	6h 19m	93%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON