Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2216 at 05:43 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2216 ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 828 ICT 17:11 → ATL 20:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2216 Delta Flight history →	ICT 05:43	ATL 08:54	5%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 1637 Delta Flight history →	ICT 11:11	ATL 14:26	11%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 828 Delta	ICT 17:11	ATL 20:28	20%	8%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON