Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3515 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3515 ICT 07:21 → DEN 08:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5240 ICT 17:24 → DEN 17:58 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3515 Southwest	ICT 07:21	DEN 08:03	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 5813 SkyWest	ICT 13:02	DEN 13:56	14%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 1722 Southwest	ICT 14:01	DEN 14:43	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5972 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 13:35	DEN 14:20	16%	7%	0.7%	89%
UA 2082 United	ICT 09:37	DEN 10:33	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5240 SkyWest	ICT 17:24	DEN 17:58	21%	9%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON