Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5104 at 05:47 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5104 ICT 05:47 → DFW 07:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2304 ICT 16:24 → DFW 17:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5104 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ICT 05:47	DFW 07:35	8%	5%	1.7%	86%
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 11:25	DFW 12:50	11%	4%	1.7%	83%
MQ 4032 Envoy	ICT 09:43	DFW 11:01	15%	4%	1.6%	no record
OO 6217 SkyWest	ICT 08:19	DFW 09:45	17%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 19:00	DFW 20:26	22%	10%	7.5%	64%
AA 5372 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ICT 14:10	DFW 15:43	24%	10%	2.0%	87%worse than usual
AA 2304 American	ICT 16:24	DFW 17:49	33%	15%	4.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON