Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: C5 4248 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day C5 4248 ICT 06:18 → IAH 08:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4510 ICT 17:00 → IAH 18:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


C5 4248 CommuteAir	ICT 06:18	IAH 08:15	9%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 4838 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ICT 09:09	IAH 11:02	14%	4%	1.2%	95%
G7 4552 GoJet	ICT 15:25	IAH 17:28	21%	8%	1.6%	no record
G7 4510 GoJet	ICT 17:00	IAH 18:57	22%	10%	3.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON