Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3740 at 17:56, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3740 Southwest	ICT 17:56	LAS 18:49	26%	12%	2.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ICT 15:50 → MSP 17:50DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 21:42 → LAS 23:07DL 1442	9h 17m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466	8h 22m	98%	78%
United Details →	ICT 09:09 → IAH 11:02UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 18m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	8h 28m	100%	78%
United Details →	ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:33UA 786	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 11:07 → LAS 13:05UA 1803	7h 40m	95%	74%
United Details →	ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Denver	DEN 16:04 → LAS 17:11UA 2424	5h 36m	94%	73%
Delta Details →	ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → LAS 17:05DL 711	7h 54m	95%	71%
American Details →	ICT 05:47 → DFW 07:35AA 5104 · flown by PSA	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:52 → LAS 09:50AA 1550	6h 03m	94%	68%
Alaska Details →	ICT 15:06 → SEA 16:59AS 2117 · flown by Horizon	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → LAS 23:05AS 704	9h 59m	100%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON