Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3782 SkyWest	ICT 07:14	MSP 09:04	7%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 3807 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 15:50	MSP 17:50	13%	6%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 07m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	8h 04m	99%	81%
United Details →	ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Denver	DEN 17:55 → MSP 21:00UA 2076	7h 25m	98%	79%
United Details →	ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:33UA 786	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 10:46 → MSP 12:21UA 215	4h 56m	93%	76%
American Details →	ICT 06:52 → ORD 08:56AA 4043 · flown by Envoy	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 11:49 → MSP 13:55AA 2448	7h 03m	96%	72%
United Details →	ICT 09:09 → IAH 11:02UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 26m Houston	IAH 14:28 → MSP 17:06UA 1818	7h 57m	100%	72%
American Details →	ICT 11:25 → DFW 12:50AA 4142 · flown by Envoy	1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:31 → MSP 17:07AA 2406	5h 42m	96%	68%
United Details →	ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 16:42 → MSP 18:06UA 1935	7h 09m	97%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON