Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4043 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4043 ICT 06:52 → ORD 08:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 6287 ICT 13:55 → ORD 15:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4043 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 06:52	ORD 08:56	9%	4%	1.5%	92%
UA 786 United Flight history →	ICT 07:25	ORD 09:33	11%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 5810 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 10:57	ORD 13:10	20%	9%	1.3%	80%
G7 4558 GoJet	ICT 18:17	ORD 20:23	26%	10%	5.1%	no record
G7 4555 GoJet	ICT 14:46	ORD 16:53	26%	10%	3.5%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ICT 18:07	ORD 20:23	27%	11%	3.2%	no record
OO 6287 SkyWest	ICT 13:55	ORD 15:59	28%	13%	2.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON