tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3507 at 06:03, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 3507 Envoy ICT 06:03 PHX 06:35 6% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 8h 33m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ICT 09:09 → IAH 11:02UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 13m Houston IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:04UA 1798 7h 55m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → PHX 17:39DL 836 8h 28m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:33UA 786 1h 37m Chicago ORD 11:10 → PHX 13:02UA 2164 7h 37m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → ICT 05:47 → DFW 07:35AA 5104 · flown by PSA 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → PHX 11:03AA 2905 7h 16m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 5h 00m 88% 74%
DeltaDetails → ICT 15:50 → MSP 17:50DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 58m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 6h 16m 86% 71%
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Chicago ORD 15:57 → PHX 17:40UA 2015 8h 43m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest 56m Chicago ORD 14:06 → PHX 15:49UA 1706 6h 52m 75% 56%
AmericanDetails → ICT 14:10 → DFW 15:43AA 5372 · flown by PSA 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:30 → PHX 17:10AA 1232 5h 00m 61% 42%
AmericanDetails → ICT 19:00 → DFW 20:26AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:18 → PHX 21:55AA 2942 4h 55m 73% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON