tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 2117 at 15:06, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history → ICT 15:06 SEA 16:59 17% 6% 1.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 11h 07m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 9h 54m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:33UA 786 3h 57m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660 10h 44m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → ICT 15:50 → MSP 17:50DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881 6h 58m 87% 68%
UnitedDetails → ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 6h 24m 93% 67%
AmericanDetails → ICT 06:52 → ORD 08:56AA 4043 · flown by Envoy 3h 05m Chicago ORD 12:01 → SEA 14:53AA 1476 10h 01m 96% 65%
UnitedDetails → ICT 09:09 → IAH 11:02UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 05m Houston IAH 12:07 → SEA 14:53UA 2228 7h 44m 86% 64%
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801 10h 09m 97% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON