Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 6466 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Safest bet that day AA 6466 IDA 07:00 → DFW 11:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 6468 IDA 12:21 → DFW 16:16 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6466 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 07:00	DFW 11:00	12%	6%	0.9%	91%
OO 4972 SkyWest	IDA 14:14	DFW 18:13	23%	12%	1.2%	no record
AA 6468 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 12:21	DFW 16:16	23%	10%	1.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON