Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3322 at 16:13, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3322 SkyWest	IDA 16:13	PDX 17:06	17%	11%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Denver	DEN 11:16 → PDX 12:58UA 644	6h 58m	97%	84%
United Details →	IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m Denver	DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:46UA 1337	8h 11m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	IDA 12:54 → SLC 14:05DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	4h 15m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	IDA 06:25 → SEA 07:20AS 3423 · flown by SkyWest	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 08:38 → PDX 09:32AS 279	4h 07m	100%	75%
United Details →	IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155	3h 12m Denver	DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498	7h 45m	93%	75%
Alaska Details →	IDA 14:06 → SEA 15:01AS 3027 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon	5h 50m	98%	73%
American Details →	IDA 12:21 → DFW 16:16AA 6468 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:20 → PDX 19:29AA 685	8h 08m	81%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON