Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3423 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 06:25	SEA 07:20	13%	6%	0.8%	84%
AS 3027 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 14:06	SEA 15:01	20%	7%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Denver	DEN 11:25 → SEA 13:24UA 2058	7h 24m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	IDA 12:54 → SLC 14:05DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	6h 39m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	4h 02m	81%	70%
United Details →	IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155	2h 49m Denver	DEN 19:07 → SEA 20:56UA 2767	7h 26m	93%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON