Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3187 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 3187 ILM 06:38 → ATL 08:10 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 1292 ILM 16:21 → ATL 17:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3187 Delta Flight history →	ILM 06:38	ATL 08:10	10%	2%	0.6%	98%
DL 376 Delta Flight history →	ILM 12:07	ATL 13:45	14%	4%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
DL 1292 Delta Flight history →	ILM 16:21	ATL 17:50	23%	8%	1.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON