Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4784 Republic	ILM 10:32	DCA 12:06	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5313 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ILM 15:29	DCA 17:09	16%	7%	1.4%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 06:38 → ATL 08:10DL 3187	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 14m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ILM 07:59 → LGA 09:55DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	1h 45m New York	LGA 11:40 → DCA 13:05DL 5749 · flown by Republic	5h 06m	97%	83%
American Details →	ILM 06:17 → CLT 07:29AA 2695	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 09:19 → DCA 10:59AA 3043	4h 42m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	ILM 13:22 → LGA 15:20DL 5186 · flown by Endeavor	3h 50m New York	LGA 19:10 → DCA 21:01DL 5724 · flown by Republic	7h 39m	98%	80%
United Details →	ILM 05:56 → EWR 08:01UA 4384 · flown by GoJet	3h 12m Newark	EWR 11:13 → DCA 12:27UA 4172 · flown by GoJet	6h 31m	98%	77%
American Details →	ILM 12:30 → ORD 13:53AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 17:02 → DCA 20:16AA 489	7h 46m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	ILM 12:07 → ATL 13:45DL 376	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	5h 23m	100%	76%
American Details →	ILM 19:10 → CLT 20:22AA 2105	2h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	4h 43m	95%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 12:30 → ORD 13:53AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 14:55 → DCA 17:59AA 2769	5h 29m	75%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON