tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3415 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3415 Envoy ILM 07:04 DFW 09:18 13% 4% 0.8% no record
MQ 4016 Envoy ILM 16:28 DFW 18:38 25% 9% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Wilmington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ILM 07:59 → LGA 09:55DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor 2h 34m New York LGA 12:29 → DFW 15:10DL 869 8h 11m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → ILM 06:38 → ATL 08:10DL 3187 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414 6h 59m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → ILM 12:07 → ATL 13:45DL 376 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:13 → DFW 17:32DL 374 6h 25m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → ILM 06:17 → CLT 07:29AA 2695 3h 48m Charlotte CLT 11:17 → DFW 13:02AA 2747 7h 45m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → ILM 08:22 → CLT 09:40AA 2960 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 13:07 → DFW 14:49AA 1690 7h 27m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → ILM 13:22 → LGA 15:20DL 5186 · flown by Endeavor 1h 40m New York LGA 17:00 → DFW 20:13DL 846 7h 51m 92% 68%
AmericanDetails → ILM 15:29 → DCA 17:09AA 5313 · flown by PSA 1h 59m Washington DCA 19:08 → DFW 21:34AA 1158 7h 05m 96% 67%
DeltaDetails → ILM 14:43 → BOS 16:59DL 5695 · flown by Republic 2h 21m Boston BOS 19:20 → DFW 22:39DL 2305 8h 56m 95% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ILM 12:30 → ORD 13:53AA 3970 · flown by Envoy 1h 09m Chicago ORD 15:02 → DFW 17:38AA 2429 6h 08m 75% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON