tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:38, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ILM 06:38 → ATL 08:10DL 3187 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 43m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → ILM 06:17 → CLT 07:29AA 2695 3h 19m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697 6h 28m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → ILM 16:21 → ATL 17:50DL 1292 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527 7h 25m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → ILM 12:07 → ATL 13:45DL 376 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 5h 47m 100% 66%
AmericanDetails → ILM 12:59 → CLT 14:21AA 5822 · flown by Piedmont 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 16:36 → EWR 18:41AA 1330 5h 42m 90% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ILM 16:15 → CLT 17:38AA 5823 · flown by Piedmont 1h 10m Charlotte CLT 18:48 → EWR 20:52AA 997 4h 37m 65% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON