Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3845 at 06:05, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3845 Envoy	ILM 06:05	MIA 08:04	15%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ILM 15:29 → DCA 17:09AA 5313 · flown by PSA	3h 55m Washington	DCA 21:04 → MIA 23:48AA 2214	8h 19m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:38 → ATL 08:10DL 3187	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 29m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	ILM 07:59 → LGA 09:55DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	1h 20m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	6h 25m	95%	70%
American Details →	ILM 06:17 → CLT 07:29AA 2695	1h 42m Charlotte	CLT 09:11 → MIA 11:19AA 3184	5h 02m	91%	68%
United Details →	ILM 05:56 → EWR 08:01UA 4384 · flown by GoJet	1h 06m Newark	EWR 09:07 → MIA 12:19UA 2785	6h 23m	93%	66%
American Details →	ILM 08:22 → CLT 09:40AA 2960	3h 55m Charlotte	CLT 13:35 → MIA 15:38AA 1198	7h 16m	100%	66%
Delta Details →	ILM 16:21 → ATL 17:50DL 1292	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	5h 38m	90%	59%
American Details →	ILM 12:30 → ORD 13:53AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 16:35 → MIA 20:55AA 2323	8h 25m	100%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON