Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3105 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 3105 IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 2498 IND 19:31 → ATL 21:34 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3105 Delta Flight history →	IND 05:55	ATL 07:30	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 3106 Delta Flight history →	IND 06:55	ATL 08:34	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	IND 11:22	ATL 12:57	9%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1901 Delta Flight history →	IND 08:00	ATL 09:36	10%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	IND 13:41	ATL 15:20	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 1928 Southwest	IND 15:41	ATL 17:23	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 3134 Delta Flight history →	IND 16:57	ATL 18:37	16%	4%	1.8%	87%
F9 2498 Frontier Flight history →	IND 19:31	ATL 21:34	23%	10%	1.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON