tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2157 Southwest IND 06:31 BNA 06:53 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 1183 Southwest IND 14:46 BNA 15:08 13% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 6210 · flown by Mesa 1h 10m Dulles IAD 08:29 → BNA 09:34UA 1366 4h 59m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → IND 16:27 → MSP 17:21DL 2910 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 6h 59m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 14m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:34DL 3106 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 35m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:47 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor 3h 22m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 16m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:32 → CLT 08:15AA 2938 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 10:40 → BNA 11:09AA 1295 5h 37m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic 2h 31m Chicago ORD 08:51 → BNA 10:35UA 1674 5h 35m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic 58m Dulles IAD 12:53 → BNA 13:52UA 213 4h 41m 95% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IND 17:23 → DFW 18:50AA 2456 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 3230 5h 47m 75% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON