Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5631 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 5631 IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest YX 4405 IND 15:48 → BOS 18:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5631 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:45	BOS 09:10	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
YX 4408 Republic	IND 08:18	BOS 10:52	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5856 Republic	IND 14:18	BOS 16:52	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
YX 4405 Republic	IND 15:48	BOS 18:30	17%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON