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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:57, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:57 → DEN 07:42WN 2787 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:47 → BUR 10:26WN 1557 6h 29m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:49 → DEN 08:40UA 1607 2h 35m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 59m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → IND 15:38 → DEN 16:38UA 377 2h 32m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 8h 02m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → BUR 12:56DL 483 10h 01m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:01 → DFW 07:35AA 2782 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:24 → BUR 11:49AA 1208 8h 48m 99% 71%
AlaskaDetails → IND 07:04 → SEA 08:52AS 625 2h 02m Seattle SEA 10:54 → BUR 13:28AS 1395 9h 24m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:45 → SFO 09:27UA 500 56m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 7h 04m 80% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON