Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2161 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2161 Southwest	IND 07:03	DAL 08:26	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2162 Southwest	IND 16:51	DAL 18:20	16%	6%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 08:00 → ATL 09:36DL 1901	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 12:47 → DAL 13:50DL 512	6h 50m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:57 → DEN 07:42WN 2787	3h 20m Denver	DEN 11:02 → DAL 14:05WN 1408	8h 08m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 11:22 → ATL 12:57DL 2952	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	7h 32m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	IND 16:57 → ATL 18:37DL 3134	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 28m	96%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON