Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2787 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 2787 IND 06:57 → DEN 07:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 3738 IND 17:56 → DEN 18:58 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2787 Southwest Flight history →	IND 06:57	DEN 07:42	3%	1%	0.5%	76%
WN 4289 Southwest	IND 09:31	DEN 10:28	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1607 United Flight history →	IND 07:49	DEN 08:40	10%	2%	0.5%	84%
F9 2345 Frontier Flight history →	IND 16:02	DEN 17:17	12%	5%	0.7%	79%
UA 377 United Flight history →	IND 15:38	DEN 16:38	15%	4%	0.5%	85%
WN 664 Southwest	IND 15:51	DEN 16:48	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3738 Southwest	IND 17:56	DEN 18:58	20%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON