Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2782 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2782 IND 06:01 → DFW 07:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2456 IND 17:23 → DFW 18:50 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2782 American Flight history →	IND 06:01	DFW 07:35	9%	3%	1.1%	89%
AA 1296 American Flight history →	IND 07:20	DFW 08:50	15%	3%	1.1%	85%
AA 1506 American Flight history →	IND 11:15	DFW 12:31	17%	5%	1.0%	85%
AA 3312 American	IND 14:22	DFW 15:39	24%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2456 American Flight history →	IND 17:23	DFW 18:50	29%	10%	2.7%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON