Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 3451 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 3451 IND 09:05 → EWR 11:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 3571 IND 18:55 → EWR 21:10 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3451 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 09:05	EWR 11:11	6%	1%	1.7%	95%
YX 3666 Republic	IND 10:42	EWR 12:50	9%	3%	1.9%	no record
YX 3677 Republic	IND 11:56	EWR 14:16	13%	3%	1.8%	no record
UA 3571 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:55	EWR 21:10	20%	5%	1.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON