tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1431 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1431 Southwest IND 06:41 FLL 09:30 8% 1% 2.4% no record
WN 263 Southwest IND 16:41 FLL 19:30 20% 6% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:22 → FLL 11:09UA 1825 5h 34m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → IND 08:49 → LGA 11:05AA 4365 · flown by Republic 1h 04m New York LGA 12:09 → FLL 15:22AA 2836 6h 33m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 6h 25m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:49 → DEN 08:40UA 1607 1h 12m Denver DEN 09:52 → FLL 15:57UA 1214 8h 08m 93% 76%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 28m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:34DL 3106 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 7h 32m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 2358 1h 49m Houston IAH 10:17 → FLL 14:06UA 2670 7h 06m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → LGA 10:12DL 5660 · flown by Republic 1h 03m New York LGA 11:15 → FLL 14:18DL 1181 6h 13m 94% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON