Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1732 at 12:31, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1732 Southwest	IND 12:31	HOU 14:07	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 06:57 → DEN 07:42WN 2787	1h 15m Denver	DEN 08:57 → HOU 12:22WN 5005	6h 25m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → HOU 09:34DL 1509	4h 39m	95%	81%
American Details →	IND 06:01 → DFW 07:35AA 2782	1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754	5h 30m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	IND 11:22 → ATL 12:57DL 2952	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 00m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	IND 16:57 → ATL 18:37DL 3134	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 54m	95%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON