Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4631 IND 07:11 → JFK 09:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 4592 IND 12:28 → JFK 14:49 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4631 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:11	JFK 09:30	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
AA 4592 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 12:28	JFK 14:49	13%	4%	1.0%	82%
DL 4932 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 06:51	JFK 09:00	9%	4%	2.9%	91%
DL 4976 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 12:52	JFK 15:15	20%	8%	4.8%	80%
DL 4984 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 17:15	JFK 19:39	24%	15%	8.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON