Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4013 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4013 IND 07:26 → LAS 08:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2173 IND 17:46 → LAS 18:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4013 Southwest	IND 07:26	LAS 08:34	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4529 Southwest	IND 11:31	LAS 12:44	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 232 Southwest	IND 15:11	LAS 16:24	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2173 Southwest	IND 17:46	LAS 18:59	24%	10%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	IND 06:57 → DEN 07:42WN 2787	1h 05m Denver	DEN 08:47 → LAS 09:49WN 2046	5h 52m	98%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON