Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:57, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 598 American Flight history →	IND 07:00	LAX 08:27	19%	3%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	9h 23m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:57 → DEN 07:42WN 2787	1h 10m Denver	DEN 08:52 → LAX 10:32WN 1254	6h 35m	98%	88%
United Details →	IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 6210 · flown by Mesa	2h 11m Dulles	IAD 09:30 → LAX 12:05UA 657	9h 30m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10DL 5631 · flown by Republic	1h 45m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	10h 18m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 08:00 → ATL 09:36DL 1901	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 12m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 07:58 → AUS 09:40DL 4027 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Austin	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	9h 50m	99%	85%
United Details →	IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689	8h 31m	98%	85%
United Details →	IND 09:25 → IAH 11:02UA 6223 · flown by Mesa	3h 52m Houston	IAH 14:54 → LAX 16:33UA 1945	10h 08m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IND 16:27 → MSP 17:21DL 2910	49m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → LAX 20:05DL 2122	6h 38m	74%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON