Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4601 IND 05:58 → LGA 08:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest YX 5751 IND 15:04 → LGA 17:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4601 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 05:58	LGA 08:14	3%	1%	1.2%	71%
AA 4365 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:49	LGA 11:05	6%	2%	1.2%	100%
DL 5660 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:05	LGA 10:12	6%	2%	1.2%	87%
AA 4565 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 13:17	LGA 15:35	10%	5%	1.5%	83%
YX 5751 Republic	IND 15:04	LGA 17:14	12%	6%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON