Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2025 at 14:11, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2025 Southwest	IND 14:11	MCI 15:00	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 06:57 → DEN 07:42WN 2787	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:42 → MCI 11:25WN 1661	5h 28m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 12:25 → MSP 13:20DL 2456	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 15:19 → MCI 16:55DL 1774	5h 30m	99%	87%
United Details →	IND 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 2358	3h 37m Houston	IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa	8h 15m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 16:27 → MSP 17:21DL 2910	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → MCI 21:59DL 1657	6h 32m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747	7h 17m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 07:47 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor	3h 17m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → MCI 13:23DL 2741	6h 36m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	7h 02m	95%	82%
United Details →	IND 07:49 → DEN 08:40UA 1607	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:50 → MCI 12:38UA 2159	5h 49m	92%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON