Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2175 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 2175 IND 05:39 → MCO 07:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1540 IND 19:47 → MCO 22:13 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2175 Southwest	IND 05:39	MCO 07:57	4%	1%	4.6%	no record
WN 1772 Southwest	IND 10:01	MCO 12:26	8%	2%	4.7%	no record
WN 4159 Southwest	IND 09:06	MCO 11:31	8%	2%	4.7%	no record
WN 3746 Southwest	IND 11:06	MCO 13:41	10%	2%	4.6%	no record
WN 4838 Southwest	IND 12:11	MCO 14:36	11%	3%	1.5%	no record
F9 3762 Frontier Flight history →	IND 11:13	MCO 13:40	13%	6%	7.2%	84%
WN 286 Southwest	IND 18:41	MCO 21:06	14%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 2178 Southwest	IND 14:16	MCO 16:41	15%	4%	2.0%	no record
WN 1275 Southwest	IND 16:21	MCO 18:51	16%	6%	1.5%	no record
F9 1540 Frontier Flight history →	IND 19:47	MCO 22:13	17%	9%	3.4%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON