tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4839 Southwest IND 07:07 MDW 07:14 5% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1749 Southwest IND 15:16 MDW 15:30 10% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417 5h 47m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 11:22 → ATL 12:57DL 2952 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728 5h 08m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:47 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor 3h 22m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 5h 59m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → IND 16:57 → ATL 18:37DL 3134 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 6h 18m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:40 → DTW 07:55DL 4924 · flown by Endeavor 55m Detroit DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor 3h 34m 91% 65%
DeltaDetails → IND 12:25 → MSP 13:20DL 2456 3h 18m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 6h 52m 99% 58%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 7h 09m 98% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON