Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2308 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2308 American Flight history →	IND 06:00	MIA 08:50	12%	3%	1.2%	92%
AA 2862 American	IND 19:21	MIA 22:04	31%	10%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 6210 · flown by Mesa	1h 26m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	6h 00m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:01 → MIA 13:40DL 793	6h 40m	97%	83%
American Details →	IND 06:46 → DCA 08:35AA 4352 · flown by Republic	1h 27m Washington	DCA 10:02 → MIA 12:58AA 401	6h 12m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	IND 06:40 → DTW 07:55DL 4924 · flown by Endeavor	1h 27m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	5h 48m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	5h 08m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:34DL 3106	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 12m	99%	77%
United Details →	IND 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 2358	3h 32m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	8h 47m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	IND 16:27 → MSP 17:21DL 2910	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 18:42 → MIA 23:26DL 2187	6h 59m	90%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 17:23 → DFW 18:50AA 2456	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 2090	6h 40m	71%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON