Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 3479 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 3479 IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 630 IND 13:05 → ORD 13:20 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3479 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:00	ORD 06:20	3%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 4557 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:48	ORD 07:24	8%	2%	0.8%	73%
YX 3495 Republic	IND 08:06	ORD 08:28	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
YX 4412 Republic	IND 10:30	ORD 10:49	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 3483 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:08	ORD 07:27	11%	2%	0.8%	79%
YX 3450 Republic	IND 11:31	ORD 11:54	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
YX 3527 Republic	IND 14:58	ORD 15:30	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
OO 5287 SkyWest	IND 09:26	ORD 09:45	18%	4%	1.1%	no record
YX 4454 Republic	IND 14:29	ORD 14:56	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3907 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IND 11:57	ORD 12:08	20%	4%	0.8%	79%
OO 4768 SkyWest	IND 19:03	ORD 19:28	22%	6%	1.7%	no record
UA 2632 United	IND 13:42	ORD 13:57	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 4915 SkyWest	IND 16:42	ORD 17:02	23%	7%	2.6%	no record
AA 2418 American	IND 20:52	ORD 21:21	28%	7%	1.5%	no record
UA 1087 United	IND 16:49	ORD 17:06	28%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 630 American	IND 13:05	ORD 13:20	32%	7%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON