Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4683 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day YX 4683 IND 08:23 → PHL 10:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 847 IND 21:29 → PHL 23:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4683 Republic	IND 08:23	PHL 10:31	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5592 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 16:54	PHL 19:03	11%	6%	1.6%	69%
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 13:26	PHL 15:32	11%	5%	1.3%	81%
AA 2847 American Flight history →	IND 07:50	PHL 09:45	14%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 847 American	IND 21:29	PHL 23:32	16%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON