Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2183 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2183 IND 06:06 → PHX 06:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2026 IND 08:14 → PHX 09:12 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2183 Southwest	IND 06:06	PHX 06:33	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1355 Southwest	IND 07:41	PHX 08:53	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1753 Southwest	IND 12:56	PHX 13:58	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1763 Southwest	IND 14:56	PHX 15:58	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 2026 American Flight history →	IND 08:14	PHX 09:12	18%	4%	0.6%	93%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON