tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4780 at 14:18, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → IND 14:18 RDU 16:02 8% 4% 0.9% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052 5h 43m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → IND 08:49 → LGA 11:05AA 4365 · flown by Republic 2h 14m New York LGA 13:19 → RDU 15:14AA 4749 · flown by Republic 6h 25m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:34DL 3106 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 47m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 10:35 → RDU 14:09DL 2521 7h 09m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:00 → ATL 09:36DL 1901 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 6h 30m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:08 → ORD 07:27UA 3483 · flown by Republic 3h 21m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 6h 53m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → IND 07:11 → JFK 09:30AA 4631 · flown by Republic 3h 29m New York JFK 12:59 → RDU 14:57AA 4658 · flown by Republic 7h 46m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IND 16:27 → MSP 17:21DL 2910 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932 7h 32m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IND 16:57 → ATL 18:37DL 3134 48m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518 4h 00m 71% 55%
AmericanDetails → IND 07:20 → DFW 08:50AA 1296 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:39 → RDU 13:37AA 2693 6h 17m 74% 54%
AmericanDetails → IND 17:23 → DFW 18:50AA 2456 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:04 → RDU 23:48AA 542 6h 25m 70% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON