Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1483 Southwest	IND 15:56	SAN 17:35	20%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 11:29 → SAN 13:25DL 2125	9h 25m	98%	86%
United Details →	IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa	56m Dulles	IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38UA 1930	8h 03m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	7h 13m	99%	82%
United Details →	IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660	8h 21m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:34DL 3106	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 13m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → SAN 11:25DL 843	8h 30m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	IND 07:47 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor	3h 28m Detroit	DTW 12:31 → SAN 14:14DL 761	9h 27m	97%	78%
United Details →	IND 09:25 → IAH 11:02UA 6223 · flown by Mesa	3h 28m Houston	IAH 14:30 → SAN 15:48UA 1114	9h 23m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IND 17:26 → IAH 19:08UA 1420	47m Houston	IAH 19:55 → SAN 21:32UA 1911	7h 06m	74%	56%
Delta Details →	IND 10:30 → DTW 11:45DL 4875 · flown by Endeavor	46m Detroit	DTW 12:31 → SAN 14:14DL 761	6h 44m	67%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON