Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 625 Alaska Flight history →	IND 07:04	SEA 08:52	19%	3%	0.9%	81%
AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	IND 17:19	SEA 19:09	24%	7%	0.8%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	IND 12:25 → MSP 13:20DL 2456	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	7h 35m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	IND 07:58 → AUS 09:40DL 4027 · flown by SkyWest	1h 39m Austin	AUS 11:19 → SEA 13:50DL 1684	8h 52m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:34DL 3106	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 55m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 18m	99%	84%
United Details →	IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic	1h 12m Dulles	IAD 13:07 → SEA 15:54UA 1824	8h 43m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 54m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10DL 5631 · flown by Republic	2h 19m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:49DL 332	11h 04m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IND 16:57 → ATL 18:37DL 3134	48m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → SEA 21:46DL 714	7h 49m	72%	49%
American Details →	IND 15:07 → CLT 16:46AA 1589	54m Charlotte	CLT 17:40 → SEA 20:25AA 751	8h 18m	69%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON